The media have declared the presidential race over. That’s not surprising. What’s striking is how many Republicans agree. They think the Romney campaign is done. It’s true that recent momentum has favored the president, especially in battleground states. A five-point deficit in Ohio looks ominous for any Republican. But President Obama hasn’t won yet. In fact he could very well lose. Here’s why:
1) Obama’s numbers aren’t that great. There are a lot of ways to measure public opinion in a presidential race. Among the most useful are the tracking polls produced by Gallup and Rasmussen, since they ask the same questions every day and therefore produce a consistent measure over time. And over time, most Americans don’t support Obama. Between April 11 and September 20 of this year, Obama reached 50 percent support in the Gallup survey on a total of just six days. Given that incumbents rarely do better than their final week of polling, that’s bad news for the White House. If Obama remains under 50 percent a month from now, he’ll likely lose.
CONTINUED at The Daily Caller. Written by Daily Caller founders Tucker Carlson and Neil Patel.