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Three More For Ol’ Mittens(0)
Mitt Fucking Romney. The name is synonymous with dissatisfaction. Well, one would think anyway. The consensus from most conservative people is that they didn’t want this guy to be their candidate. They tried so hard to prop up all the other GOP weaklings but Mr. Romney was just slightly stronger it seems and because of that, is the last man standing for the establishment righties to vote for. I mean, they aren’t going to vote for Ron Paul, that much has been established and since they’re going to vote for “Anyone but Obama” (which doesn’t include Paul), I guess it should be no surprise that Captain Haircut swept three more states on the road to the nomination. Romney racked up victories in West Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina. North Carolina wasn’t a surprise as the people there also voted to ban gay marriage. Surprisingly though, their intolerant right-wing idiocy didn’t push Santorum to the front of the pack, even though he is completely out of the race. I know that sounds crazy but look at West Virginia. Santorum actually came in second place in that state ahead of Ron Paul! Santorum who isn’t even in the race and who has endorsed Romney beat Ron Paul who is still in this thing! It’s not a showing of how weak Paul may seem to be, it is a showing of how insane the inbred people of West Virginia are. I mean, didn’t those ‘Wrong Turn’ movies take place there? You know what I’m talking about, those cheap ‘Texas Chainsaw Massacre’ knockoffs that saw incest-loving mutant hillbillies hunting and eating tourists who accidentally turned off of the main road and into their neck of the woods. Sounds like Santorum cultists for sure. With Ron Paul in second albeit last place, Santorum’s performance was pointless and the backwoods beasts who voted for him are retarded for even bothering to show up to their precincts. Maybe all the precincts were barbecue joints and the customers got confused and thought they were filling out comment cards. It really is hard to say when we are dealing with people who have the brains of ravenous rabies-afflicted canines. The people who casted votes for Gingrich might be even slightly more insane. Whatever, I’m tired of bashing these people and frankly, I don’t want them to eat me alive. Luckily, Florida is a long way away and these West Virginia mutants can’t operate a GPS system and would probably just use maps to make clothes. At least Dr. Paul is racking up a shitload of delegates and even though he won’t be staring down Obama in an upcoming debate, he has still proven to be a force of fucking nature in this race regardless of media blackouts, blatant bias and establishment shenanigans. These fuckers can try and fix an election but they can’t fix the brains of the vigilant self-educated masses who are growing in numbers year after year. As I stated previously, it looks like the Paul campaign’s questionable delegate hunting tactics have worked to some degree, especially now that former Senator Ass Juice and former Speaker of the House Newt Giggles have dropped like flies drunk on Off! Bug Spray. The clock is counting down and the Republican National Convention is just around the corner. When Tampa comes, shit could get really interesting in this race. Hopefully by then, the Santorum mutants have gone back to eating lost teenagers and the Gingrich supporters have gone back to living in holes. I guess it just bothers me that people are stupid enough to put a check next to a name on a ballot when that candidate is a quitter. Well, losers typically flock to other losers and when your grey matter is made up of the sort of stuff a typical right-wing establishment neo-conservative has between their ears, you are going to make really stupid decisions while contributing to the downfall of this country. Truth be told, I know this is coming off as somewhat irate and that I am resorting to name-calling but fuck you people. I’m not going to hide behind some political correct bullshit in an effort to save face and have a sane and rational discussion with you people when everything about you is insane and irrational. Stop being such parasites and stop living your fucking fear turtle life in a goddamned shell afraid of every boogeyman your worthless heroes throw at you. It’s time to stop looking at everyone that doesn’t jive with your bullshit philosophy as an enemy. That goes for other nations, the other side of the political coin and other Americans who aren’t privy to your psychotic idiocy. Now you may be thinking that I am being hypocritical in my words and that I am coming at you like you are my enemy or better yet that you are the enemy of anyone who is a libertarian, a constitutionalist or a free-thinker. I’m not, I’m just sick of the games and being labeled crazy when you are the assholes who are stuck in your ways – ways that have been proven to fail again and again. None of you want to try anything new or examine history, you just want to keep your side of the assembly line moving in an effort to beat out the other side. Whether that’s for bragging rights or just because you want to win just for the sake of winning, doesn’t fucking matter to me! Both sides of the assembly line are in a rush and are in turn making really shitty products while pointing fingers back and forth. It’s time to shut this inefficient factory down and move the business elsewhere. Rant over. And congratulations Mr. Romney. You really took it to those weak contenders. |
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Ron Paul Could Still Win Enough Delegates to Deny Mitt Romney the Republican Nomination(0) Despite what you may have heard from the mainstream media, Mitt Romney does not have the Republican nomination locked up. In fact, he is rapidly losing delegates that almost everyone assumed that he already had in the bag. To understand why this is happening, you have to understand the delegate selection process. Each state has different rules for selecting delegates to the Republican national convention, and in many states the “voting” done by the public does not determine the allocation of delegates to particular candidates at all. And the truth is that delegates are the only thing that really matters in this race. In state after state, the Ron Paul campaign is focusing on the delegate selection process with laser-like precision, and it is paying off big time. At this point, there is still a legitimate chance that Ron Paul will be able to win enough delegates to deny Mitt Romney the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican national convention in Tampa. If Romney does not have the 1,144 delegates that he needs on the first ballot, then it becomes a brokered convention and anything becomes possible at that point. Sadly, most Americans have no idea how this process really works. For example, originally we were all told that Mitt Romney won Iowa. Then, later on we were told that a mistake was made and that Rick Santorum actually won Iowa. Well, it turns out that Ron Paul actually won 20 out of the 28 delegates in Iowa. That is because the process of actually selecting the delegates occurred long after the voting by the public was over. So what happens if the Ron Paul campaign is able to produce similar results in state after state? The Ron Paul campaign is very organized, very motivated and they understand the rules of the game. As a recentPolitico article detailed, there are huge amounts of unbound delegates out there that are still up for grabs….
In many states, the “official” results of voting done by the public mean next to nothing. The talking heads on television often tell us how many delegates are “projected” to go to a particular candidate, but as we have seen in Iowa and in so many other states, those “projections” are basically meaningless. A recent Salon article discussed how the delegate selection process really works and how the Ron Paul campaign is using these rules to shake up the game….
So could Ron Paul really deny Mitt Romney the Republican nomination? At this point, nobody really seems to know what the real delegate count is. Websites such as The Real 2012 Delegate Count are more accurate than most sources in the mainstream media, but even that site has been underestimating the true number of Ron Paul delegates. Right now, Mitt Romney is not anywhere close to having the number of delegates that he needs for the nomination and Ron Paul just keeps picking up more delegates with each passing week. For example, a Washington Post article that was posted on Sunday reported that Ron Paul just achieved a stunning delegate victory in Nevada….
That was a state that Romney supposedly “won”. It looks like Romney has a real problem. In state after state, Ron Paul is gobbling up delegates. The following are quotes from a recent Huffington Post article about what the Ron Paul campaign has been able to achieve in the past few weeks…. -”Sure enough, Paul has already won 20 out of the 24 delegates allocated in Minnesota, by winning a majority of the congressional district contests.” -”In Louisiana, Paulites “dominated” the congressional district caucuses this past Saturday, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune. Paul’s supporters carried four of the state’s congressional districts, and are guaranteed at least 17 of 46 delegates in the Bayou State, with the potential to pick up more at the state convention on June 2.” -”The other state that Benton likely has his eye on is Colorado, where the Denver Post reported in mid-April that Paul supporters and Santorum backers combined forces to win a “stunning upset” at the state convention, guaranteeing that about half of the state’s 33 delegates will be for Paul in August.” And look what just happened in Maine according to USA Today….
So Ron Paul is definitely accumulating a huge pile of his own delegates, but even many so-called “pledged delegates” for Romney could end up playing a huge role for Ron Paul. In some states, Ron Paul supporters have been getting elected into delegate slots that are supposed to go to Romney. This is highly unusual, and it could really shake things up at the national convention. As a Salon articlerecently explained there will be quite a few Ron Paul supporters that will actually be going to Tampa “disguised” as Romney delegates….
But those delegates are required to vote for Romney, right? Not so fast. The Ron Paul campaign could actually ask those “disguised” Romney delegates to abstain during the first round of voting in Tampa. If Romney did not win on the first ballot, those delegates would then become unbound and would be able to support Ron Paul. In fact, Ronald Reagan considered using this tactic against Gerald Ford in 1976. The following is from a 1976 article entitled “Reagan Forces May ‘Steal’ Ford Votes”….
Delegates have abstained from voting before. Back in 2008, at least 14 delegates abstained from voting at the Republican national convention. So what would happen if the Ron Paul campaign was able to get 100 or 150 “Romney delegates” to abstain from voting during the first ballot in Tampa? That is a very intriguing question. And remember, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich also have significant numbers of delegates pledged to each of them. So Ron Paul does not need to accumulate 1,144 delegates himself to deny Mitt Romney the nomination on the first ballot. He just needs to keep Romney from getting to 1,144. The race for the Republican nomination is not over. You can find a state by state breakdown of delegate voting rules right here. It is not too late to get involved. If nobody gets to 1,144 on the first ballot in Tampa, it becomes a “brokered convention” and anyone can become the nominee – even someone that is not running right now. So if you are not satisfied with Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee, don’t lose hope yet. The game is still being played. It would be a challenge, but if his supporters get energized enough, it certainly is possible that Ron Paul could still win enough delegates to deny Mitt Romney the Republican nomination on the first ballot in Tampa. And if that happens, anything is possible. CONTINUED at the American Dream. |
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Navigating Forward in a Sea of Stupidity & Tyranny(1)
I barely have time to write this essay or whatever you want to officially call it, just as I haven’t had much time to write anything lately. Right now I am trying to finish up a few projects for work while packing and prepping for my long weekend trip to Gainesville. I’m going up there to visit my cousin and his college aged friends – some in school, some not. The booze will be aplenty and the party atmosphere should be monolithic, as that wild college town never fails to disappoint in the realm of pure debauchery and substance-enchanced frenzies. Between the usually free-spirited and good-hearted college kids encompassing downtown and the campus areas to the good ol’ boys on the outskirts of the concentrated action, trouble is something hard for one to avoid when the ante is upped and the whiskey is flowing. The only thing that can stop such fun-filled insanity is one of those damned Sunday nights when you are ill-prepared and find yourself out of alcohol in a county that decides to go dry for twenty-four hours during the Deep South’s weekly church day. Last trip, I found myself and a few of my cousin’s friends driving frantically through the dark North Central Florida wilderness in an effort to cross the county line and find anywhere that might have any sort of alcohol available for purchase. It was also a race against the clock as it was about closing time for most liquor stores in the state. Luckily, the mission was accomplished and we left with some fanciful artistic vanity beers, some PBR and a couple bottles of various 80 proof (or higher) swill. This is probably what awaits me over the course of the next few days and I do need to get my shit together for the small vacation. However, I couldn’t resist sitting down at my temperamental Apple computer to type up my thoughts on the events of today. Hell, it isn’t even noon yet but the news is full of stories about the Paul Family. It’s a good day to be a Ron and Rand Paul supporter, as things are seemingly looking up in a few different ways. To start, the Paul Revolution v2.0 is underway! Sure, I am really looking way ahead here but the younger Dr. Paul is doing all the right things and going against the grain so successfully that the media cannot ignore him. He is sticking out like a sore thumb against a backdrop of middle fingers. He isn’t playing the party politics game and isn’t succumbing to the Beltway bullshit while the vast majority of all the other Tea Party darlings have auctioned off their souls. In fact, Rand Paul probably pisses the Tea Party people off as they are really just grassroots establishment stooges at this point in the game. He is the antithesis to their heroes Marco Rubio, Michele Bachmann, Col. Allen West, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and now Mitt Romney. Rand Paul recognizes the tyranny that is running rampant due to the PATRIOT Act and NDAA. He knows that the Department of Homeland Security is an over-inflated branch of the government that assaults our constitutional rights. He doesn’t try to convince himself that he must surrender his principles to fear and embrace the ever-expanding police state. As a senator and a direct victim of the TSA’s special brand of tyranny, he knows all too well how far their big brother fingers reach into the heart of liberty. Rand Paul has officially made it his mission to end the TSA and to free the heart of liberty from their death grip. Like most Americans, Rand is tired of the harassment and horrible treatment of American citizens at the hands of these tyrannical bottom-feeders. Ultimately, he is sick and tired of the horrendous violations against our constitutional rights. To combat the tyranny, he has come forward with new legislation simply called the ‘END the TSA Bill’. You can actually sign a petition in support of the bill at ChooseLiberty.org. In a nutshell, this law would forcibly privatize the TSA. What that means is that the government would not be able to put their hands on airport security. By privatizing the TSA, it doesn’t end airport security, it opens up competition from all over to come in and compete for the job. In order for the TSA to survive, it would have to adapt to the will of the people and the business owners (i.e. the airports and airlines) or else it would be swallowed up by a competitor that would. This brings the free market into airport security and therefore allows a company that is willing to find the balance between actually effective security practices and respecting the rights of those who pass through their gates. It is a win/win scenario for the citizens, the airports, the airlines and the company that is able to provide the absolute best service. If this scares you than don’t worry, I’m sure your other war-mongering fear turtle Tea Party darlings will strike it down. Ultimately, that is the real problem here and until we get other men and women in Congress who have the sense of Dr. Paul Sr. and Dr. Paul Jr., championing freedom back into our lives will be futile. However, it’s not all bad as the Paul Family message is growing larger everyday. The second thing worth mentioning is the fact that even though it is pretty clear that Mitt Romney is going to go head-to-head with Obama in November, Ron Paul is still in this thing – making the GOP side of things very interesting. It is a two-man race between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney as every other candidate in this thing has dropped out to sign book deals and television contracts. The two-man race between Paul and Romney was made official today, as even Fox News couldn’t continue their blackout. Nope, Fox News announced that Ron Paul has officially qualified to be able to be the Republican nominee for president, if they decide to choose him over Romney (they won’t). This pivotal point in the race will take place at the Republican National Convention coming up in a few months in Tampa, FL. Ron Paul has stayed in through thick and thin and has now met all the requirements for his name to be put up there alongside frontrunner Mitt Romney. I guess his delegate-hunting tactic has worked and paid off. This is great news, not because he has a chance of winning at this point – I firmly believe he doesn’t, but because he will be at the convention – in front of the world and will have the opportunity to spread his message further into the minds of all the Americans preparing for the big race between two big government progressive hyenas laughing at those who believe that there is some sort of difference between the two of them: there isn’t. This could be Ron Paul’s Reagan moment. Like Ronald Reagan’s speech at the 1964 Republican National Convention, where Barry Goldwater won the nomination, Paul’s speech could unleash a tsunami wave of pro-liberty thinking. Sure, it is too little too late for the elder Dr. Paul, as he is walking away from politics after this election, but his son could be set up to take the reigns from his father and push this message forward with youthful vigor and vigilance for decades to come! One can only hope that generations of Pauls continue to follow the path of Ron and Rand and keep giving us a legacy of liberty that isn’t willing to compromise with the beast to save face and further their careers by sacrificing their principles. This brings me to my next point. Rand Paul has a serious ball that he can pick up and run with. His father has done a fantastic job of laying the groundwork for the next generation to use to their advantage. Maybe this has been the Paul family agenda all along; who knows? The point is, the foundation has been built and it is pretty fucking strong. Guys like Rand Paul, Justin Amash and Gary Johnson could use this to their advantage and really our advantage as well. I don’t think that this is the year for Gary Johnson but the future could be very bright for him as well as the younger Paul and Congressman Amash. In 2016 or 2020, we could have a real pro-constitutional candidate in the mix who has enough steam and power to bulldoze through the establishment competition. If the momentum of the Paul message continues, the people just may be ready to commit and see this thing through. The numbers could very well be to the advantage of truth and for the first time in a very long time, America could move in the right direction. That is, of course, if the current crop of politicians don’t completely burn DC to the ground. I know that I have come across as overly pessimistic at times in my writings, especially as of late, but it is hard to not give up hope when the hole you are in is so deep that you can’t even see the surface above you anymore. Maybe everything will crash and burn and at this rate, it is the most likely outcome but even if this does happen, we still need the type of leaders that can get us out of all this. Eventually the damage may be so bad that the only thing we can do is rebuild from the ground up. We will all pay for the crimes committed from those we elected and truthfully, we deserve to pay the price of our own ignorance and blindness. Our complete lack of vigilance and our blind faith in political parties has been our downfall. You can continue to point the finger at Washington DC, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street or whoever else but the truth is, American citizens are the ones who are at fault. The longer we assume that government will take responsibility for our lives and our well-being, the longer we will have to live with our heads in the clouds as shivering weaklings unworthy of walking on the same soil as our Founding Fathers. Until we overcome our own denial we won’t overcome our own self-perpetuating tragedy. The bull is staring coldly into our eyes, right in front of our goddamned faces but we aren’t grabbing the fucking horns! Why?! This isn’t a dose of pessimism, it’s a dose of realism. With that said, to be real, I feel the need to point out that, in this case, the proverbial “beacon of light that guides freedom-loving people everywhere” could just be Senator Rand Paul. An article I came across on Business Insider’s website this morning talks about Rand’s potential 2016 or 2020 presidential run and how he is already working towards building a solid relationship with many of the key people that can help him reach levels greater than his father. Hell, the Evangelical sect of the voting public is taking to the younger Paul even though historically, they have not been too supportive of his father. Christian TV producer Justin Machacek said it best when comparing Rand to his father:
Things are looking up for the Paul legacy, despite whatever the horrible results of the 2012 election will be, and if the right people are won over before the next election cycle and the message of constitutionalism continues to expand, the future could be bright. Of course, playing devil’s advocate, this is assuming that the Republican Party can actually change or that a third party could actually rise to challenge the two party monopoly. As hopeless as it seems, it’s very much possible if we want it badly enough. Now grab the fucking horns. |
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Great Interview: Sen. Rand Paul confronts tyranny and talks 2012 electionsComments Off An Exclusive interview, Alex Jones speaks with Sen. Rand Paul on NDAA, TSA undercover on Houston busses, Obama’s overall neglect of the Constitution, his possible impeachment and much more. This is a must see video.
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None of the Above?Comments Off
Romney’s inevitable nomination is slipping through his well-manicured fingers. While the media has been telling us for months that no one has a shot against Prince Willard’s well funded political machine, it is clear that the voters are less impressed. After defeats in Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada, Missouri (even though Missouri really doesn’t count delegates until later), Minnesota and Colorado, and a victory in Maine that required some Chicago-style shenanigans to edge out Ron Paul, Romney is now fighting off Rick Santorum for the lead in national polls. This article, however, isn’t about the Santorum surge; nor is it an analysis on why Mitt is having difficulty connecting with Republican voters (the latter being the key factor to the former.) Instead let’s discuss the potential consequences of an intensely contested primary battle ending with Romney falling short of the 1,144 delegate threshold. Let’s talk about a brokered convention. Since the last brokered convention was the infamous Democratic Convention of 1968, many Americans may not be familiar with the concept or what could emerge from such an event. During the first ballot at the Republican convention, the state elected delegates are required to vote for whomever they are pledged (though, as Paul’s campaign understands, caucus delegates enjoy a bit more leeway). After that though? All bets are off. Now it is possible that Romney, after losing the nomination by a few votes, could simply convert some Gingrich or Santorum pledged delegates and then seal the deal. That, however, depends upon genuine interest in Romney being the nominee. If we can take away anything from his primary difficulties, it is that Romney has done little to excite the Republican base. What about Santorum or Gingrich? If Gingrich wasn’t so personally disliked, he would potentially lock up the nomination outright. Santorum on the other hand, terrifies many outside of a specific demographic of Republican voters. This is why it is important to point out that a brokered convention does not limit delegates to choose between those currently seeking the GOP nomination. In 1968, for example, the Democratic nomination went to Hubert Humphrey, the serving VP who did not participate in a single primary. So who in the broader GOP could benefit? People are quick to respond with Chris Christie. Consider, however, that the governor not only refused multiple attempts to jump into the primary contest, but has played bulldog for Romney throughout most of the campaign. This will immediately make it difficult to win over Newt backers and, combined with some of his social views, won’t endear him to Santorum delegates. Mitch Daniels? Another executive who opted against entering the race months ago, Daniels has so far been hesitant to subject his family to the hardships of national political exposure. While people, to say nothing of politicians, always have the ability to change their mind, I think it is unlikely in this Hoosier’s case. Though I don’t fully understand the bizarre obsession many establishment Republicans have with Jeb Bush, I do think they are right to look south towards Florida. The candidate best situated to emerge from a brokered convention is Senator Marco Rubio. Though some may bristle at nominating a young, inexperienced senator with a razor thin record of accomplishment, demographic-conscious Republican strategists dream of the GOP electing the first Latino President. He could also be unique in creating an energized, united front amongst the three establishment candidates. Remember that Rubio worked with Newt on his book 100 Innovative Ideas for Florida’s Future, shares Santorum’s Catholic faith and defended Romney during the Florida primary. Rubio would be rewarded for staying out of the endorsement game. If he harbors any Presidential aspirations, Rubio will never find a better opportunity to act on them. He would be going against an unpopular administration and have the enviable position of being spared the long, exhausting process of primary politics. To those who would question whether Rubio, who showed no interest in running for the nomination before, would suddenly take the nomination, look at the calendar. A traditional primary run would have sacrificed the opportunity to do anything in the Senate and forced Rubio back into the electoral game roughly four months after a difficult and expensive senatorial contest. An August nomination spares him almost two years before diving back into campaigning. The scenario above is still very unlikely – but unlikely describes the GOP nomination process to date. One thing that can’t be questioned, however, is the appeal Rubio has with a large section of Republicans, both in the establishment and the grassroots. At a time where friction has never been higher between these two classes, I believe Rubio can unite and inspire quite like no other GOP figure can. That potential should not be overlooked. |
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GOP to Punish Florida at Nominating Convention for Holding Early PrimaryComments Off Florida’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are getting snubbed in their own house, after the national GOP decided Wednesday to ramp up penalties on the state for holding an early primary in violation of party rules. Though Florida is hosting the party’s national convention in Tampa later this year, a Republican National Committee panel voted unanimously to give the state’s representatives second-class access to the whole affair. Under the resolution, the national party will make sure Florida’s delegates have poor seating and poor hotel options — as in, hotels that are not close to the Tampa Bay Times Forum, the convention venue. According to an RNC official, the delegates will also be limited in the number of guest passes they can hand out. The Rules Committee voted for the sanctions Wednesday, and the RNC official said no further action is needed to carry out the punishment. “They will be penalized with reduced guest passes, reduced priority seating on the floor and hotels further away,” the official told Fox News. A Florida Republican official claimed the national party still has to take one more step to finalize the penalties, but suggested there would be no hard feelings going into November. The official said the state party will “do nothing but (commit) ourselves to making sure that a Republican wins the state of Florida.” The latest penalties would come on top of the hit the Sunshine State already took to its delegate count. The state is expected to lose half its 99 delegates as a result of its decision to hold the Republican presidential primary on Jan. 31. Under RNC rules, Florida was not supposed to hold what’s known as a “winner-take-all” primary before April. That’s a primary in which all the state’s delegates are awarded to the winner, as opposed to one in which the delegates are awarded proportionally. The very beginning of the 2012 primary calendar is also supposed to be reserved for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Florida’s decision to get in on the early primary action follows a similar move in 2008, and a similar punishment by the RNC. Leonard Curry, chairman of the Florida GOP, said in a statement that he’s hoping to move forward despite the new penalties. “I understand why today’s vote took place and we will continue to work to protect Florida Republicans’ interest at the national convention,” Curry said. “With today’s action, I hope that all Republicans can move together, unified and committed to the most important goal we have — the election of a Republican president in 2012.” When the state party first announced the date in September, Curry said the early vote “properly reflects the importance Florida will play on the national stage.” A true swing state, Florida, with its 29 delegates to the Electoral College, is considered essential to win the general election. Barack Obama won the state in 2008. Source: Fox News. |
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A Look Towards 2012Comments Off
The first GOP debate may have occurred almost two weeks ago, but the 2012 field made a big step towards clarity this weekend. Newt Gingrich is in, Mike Huckabee is out. The question is “which matters more?” Huckabee leaves a large group of voters without their Spring 2011 first-choice candidate. Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, brings with him the perception of policy wonk (a Washington nerd for those outside the Beltway) who started his campaign criticizing DC Republican’s current attempts to reform entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid. The subject of 2012 is a strange one, especially as someone new to living within the District. Talk to the majority of Republicans up here and you will find a group that has already conceded 2012 to President Obama; venture back to what Sarah Palin would call “real America” and you get the sense that anyone can take down Barack. This disconnect between Republicans “in the know” and the grassroots may end up having larger consequences than anyone is considering. It has often been pointed out that the Republican nominees tend to inherent their title. Nixon was a former VP. Gerald Ford defeated “outsider” Ronald Reagan in ’76, and then watched Reagan take the party in 1980. Reagan was followed by his Vice President who, of course, was the father of the next Republican President. John McCain ran in 2000 before 2008. Even Bob Dole, the Party’s choice in 1996, was a campaign veteran – serving as Ford’s VP candidate in ’76. This, along with his well documented advantage in personal wealth, has placed Mitt Romney as the perceived favorite. Others say that a bad economy benefits a man with the private sector experience Romney holds. Romney certainly “looks Presidential”, whatever that may mean, and has the charisma to carry a room. His strength, I believe, is over-stated. In the end, Mitt Romney has all the factors working against him in 2008, with the added gorilla of Romneycare clawing at his back. It is true that the economy ways higher in the minds of GOP voters, but it has yet to be proven whether Romney will be able to best take advantage of that environment. Romney still has the perception of being a John Kerry-like flip-flopper. His past views on abortion, along with a bias against Mormonism, will hurt him in Middle-America Iowa. Romney’s may have success in New Hampshire, but he failed to win the state in 2008. Romney’s campaign reminds me of Rudy Giuliani’s in 2008. Like 2012 Mitt, Rudy was viewed as the front runner throughout Spring of 2007 before failing to win a single Republican primary. Some would credit Rudy’s decision to place all his eggs in a Floridian basket as the cause of his downfall, but Giuliani campaign was reacting to reality of the earlier contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. So if not Romney, who? Conventional wisdom would make former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as the establishment’s choice. A two time executive, Pawlenty is handsome, disciplined and, outside of support for Cap-and-Trade that he now apologizes for, has a perfectly acceptable legislative record. In other words, “TPaw” is safe. An astute friend of mine calls him “Captain Vanilliastein”, a man whose best strength is being inoffensive. In the under-attended May 5th GOP debate, Pawlenty stood out in his inability to stand out. More than anyone else, Pawlenty reverted to white-washed political rhetoric. He seemed to field every question like a 5 minute campaign commercial rather than a chance to shed light on what he genuinely believed. While Ron Paul made headlines with his defense of liberty in a question about heroin, and Rick Santorum and Herman Cain’s passion and fire caught the attention of conventional conservative figures like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, the reaction to Tim Pawlenty’s performance was purely based on his perception as the “only legitimate candidate” on the stage. But does the GOP want such a sterile candidate? 2010 saw Republican voters side with Christine O’Donnell and Rand Paul over “safer” GOP candidates. Now these candidates did not always find success, but the Tea Party movement indisputably breathed life into the party. Substance won out over political pragmatism. The real world will also be important. Beyond the GOP’s interest in the ever expanding debt, other economic factors are worth noting. Inflation continues to rise. In June, the Federal Reserve will end its QE2 program which has it being the largest purchaser of Treasury securities. Meanwhile Japan is likely to be required to start selling their US treasuries as they pay for earthquake reconstruction and China has cooled in their interest in our bonds. PIMCO’s Bill Gross, one of the most influential voices in investment, has made his disinvestment of US bonds well known. The consequences of this will push the subject of monetary policy into the national conversation. The results are likely voter frustration and a change in the debate. This is where two dark horses begin to look rather interesting. Herman Cain has a chance to tap into conservative populism. He has never been elected to office, speaks with passion, has proven to be more-than-willing to go after the throat of President Obama and brings with him a plan to eliminate the IRS. He has inroads with Tea Party grassroots and a history of success in the private sector. He is the sort of candidate DC Republicans will be quick to dismiss, which is one of the reasons he is an intriguing player in 2012. Money will be an issue, but he may be more popular than Newt Gingrich in their shared home state of Georgia. A strong showing in one of the earlier states and he could be a major player. In terms of substance, no candidate can better Congressman Ron Paul. His 2008 economic advisor, Peter Schiff, famously predicted a dire collapse in housing while many in the media laughed it off. He has just released a book outlining his philosophy on a number of political positions from Abortion to Zionism. He has been the largest opponent of the Federal Reserve in Washington and now uses his position as Chairman of the Domestic Monetary Policy Subcommittee to berate it regularly. He has an army of young, energetic followers, ready to storm social media with user-generated content. And he has proven to be a solid fundraiser with often-copied “money bombs”. If the focus of 2012 is about issues instead of perceived electability, Ron Paul is the greatest beneficiary. Perhaps, for this reason, Newt Gingrich’s presence helps Dr. Paul. Or perhaps the GOP nominee has yet to enter the race. While Michelle Bachman is contemplating her own campaign, it is Indian Governor Mitch Daniels who most people are focusing on. Though being courted by supporters, Daniels appears to understand all too well the personal consequences of such a run. If he does throw his hat into the ring, it will certainly change the picture. In the middle of May, only one thing is clear about the path to the RNC Convention in Tampa – nothing is clear. |
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Florida Schedules January 31st PrimaryComments Off
According to Fox’s Chris Stirewalt, Florida’s upset the RNC’s carefully crafted delay of the 2012 primaries by scheduling the state’s primary election on January 31st. Now, other states want to punish Florida by taking away the GOP convention. |
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