As Chinese take up a big position on gold, COMEX commodity speculator positions begin to surge.

The spot market price of buying Gold climbed to $1728 an ounce Monday morning London time – a slight drop from last week’s close – while stock markets, commodities and the Euro all fell and government bond prices rose as European leaders met for their latest summit in Brussels.

The cost of buying Silver fell to $33.08 at one point – a 2.6% drop from where it ended last week.

Gold fell as low as $1718 per ounce Monday morning, dropping steadily during Asian trading, though this represented a loss of only 1% on Friday’s closing price.

CHINA

“Everybody seemed to be expecting profit taking out of Shanghai after the two Chinese bourses came back online,” said one Hong Kong dealer.

“As far as we can see, there wasn’t much of that.”

During last week’s Lunar New Year holiday, China saw a “gold rush”, with consumers spending more on buying gold than during the 2011 festival, according to a China Daily report.

“People seem crazy about gold, snatching it up more like a cheap cabbage than such a precious metal,” it quotes Beijing resident Miao Miao.

The value of sales at two of Beijing’s top gold retailers, Caibai and Guohua, reportedly hit 600 million Yuan ($95.28 million) – a 49.7% rise on last year’s sales, almost 50% increase in purchases! The gold price in Dollars meantime rose around 25% over the same period.

The Yuan also appreciated against the Dollar over that time, gaining around 3.6%, which implies a rise in Chinese domestic gold prices of around 20%.

CONTINUED at Commodity Online.

A combination of several factors, including a declining dollar and the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would keep interest rates at virtually zero until late 2014, helped to send gold and silver prices soaring to multi-week highs. Analysts expect the upward trend to continue as paper currencies founder and gloomy news continues to dominate the economic headlines.

The spot price for gold was around $1,725 by 2 p.m. Eastern time after jumping more than $60 since the day before, up almost 30 percent from a year ago and more than 7.5 percent over the last 30 days. It smashed through $1,700 on Wednesday for the first in six weeks.

“At the moment everything points to even higher prices, given the strong risk appetite, the better mood among market players, the strong equity markets and the weak dollar,” Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann told Reuters.

Analysts said the single most important factor behind gold’s strong rally was the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the privately owned central bank promised to keep short-term interest rates at rock bottom until late 2014, extending the date from its previous pledge to keep rates down until mid-2013.

Also bullish for gold — and bearish for the U.S. dollar, of course — was Fed boss Ben “helicopter” Bernanke’s veiled threat to unleash more so-called “Quantitative Easing,” known in simpler terms as creating new “money” out of thin air and pumping it into the economy by purchasing bonds. The dollar immediately took a hit against other major currencies.

“The framework makes very clear that we need to be thinking about ways to provide further stimulus if we don’t get improvement in the pace of recovery and a normalization of inflation,” Bernanke said during a quarterly news conference after the Fed’s report was released. Analysts and central bank critics, already concerned about massive monetary “easing” in recent years, lambasted the idea that more money would solve the economic problems plaguing America.

“If the Federal Reserve thought the economy was improving, it wouldn’t need this artificial prop to keep sustaining it,” said Euro Pacific Capital head Peter Schiff, noting that wild money printing was helping to drive the nation and its economy off a cliff. “The President and the Federal Reserve are now conspiring to create a much bigger crisis.”

The Fed claimed it would be targeting a 2-percent rate of annual inflation for 2012. However, few analysts take the government’s “Consumer Price Index” (CPI) measure of inflation seriously — especially as Core CPI, one of the most frequently cited figures, omits price increases in key sectors like food and energy.

According to Schiff, the government’s claim based on CPI that inflation for 2011 was 3 percent is completely bogus. It was actually much higher, he said, noting that officials were using phony measures like the CPI to mask the true rate of inflation. And it is likely to be even higher in 2012 before eventually morphing into a full-blown currency and debt crisis in the coming years.

“The reason they have to keep [interest rates] so low is to artificially support a phony economy,” Schiff explained. “This economy is a disaster waiting to happen — the only thing standing between us and economic Armageddon is zero-percent interest rates.”

But it can’t go on forever, and the longer rates are kept so low, the worse the looming crisis will be. For now, Schiff, whose business trades gold and silver, said investors should protect their assets by purchasing precious metals “before the price goes any higher.”

An analysis by Bloomberg published on Wednesday showed that gold — which has increased every year for more than a decade — provided the best return on investment over the last five years when adjusted for volatility. And heavy-hitting financial firms cited in the report including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are forecasting that gold prices will keep rising to around $2,000 in 2012 or 2013.

“People are still very under-invested in gold, and so there is a huge scope of that increasing,” explained UniCredit analyst Jochen Hitzfeld, the most accurate precious-metals forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years. Other experts noted that gold is widely and accurately perceived as a safe-haven in times of economic turmoil.

While gold prices have been extraordinarily volatile — spot prices hit $1,923 in September before crashing to $1,523 by the end of 2011 — the longer-term rally has so far been relatively consistent over the past decade. Just 10 years ago, gold was worth less than $300 per ounce.

Silver, which has also seen drastic price fluctuations, was less than $5 per ounce 10 years ago. In 2011, it surged to an all-time high of around $50 before dropping back down to about $33.35 today. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, has not been doing so well — even when measured against other depreciating paper currencies.

Even billionaire investor George Soros, whose well-publicized sale of some 99 percent of his gold holdings during the first quarter of 2011 spooked precious-metals investors, has jumped back into the market. According to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings cited by Bloomberg, the hedge-fund manager had increased his stake in SPDR Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund tracking gold prices, to almost 50,000 shares as of September 30.

Central banks around the world were also buying up multi-ton quantities of gold bullion, according to data cited in news reports. And the trend shows no signs of slowing down.

In other bullish news for the precious metal, unconfirmed reports indicate India has started purchasing oil from Iran using gold rather than U.S. dollars. China could follow, too, according to news reports.

“It shows the exodus from the dollar is gaining speed,” noted precious-metals and currency trader Simit Patel on the investment analysis site Seeking Alpha. “With the major economies of the world facing $7.6 trillion in bond payments due this year, I think the tipping point for a shift out of dollars and into a new monetary system backed by gold is not as far off as it may seem.”

With the steep drop in prices during the last few months of 2011, some analysts and traders were reluctant to get back in the precious-metals market before the appearance of a solid bottom had solidified. But the big banks and respected analysts are forecasting that as long as the fundamentals — out-of-control money printing, sovereign-debt crises, wild government spending, and more — remain the same, gold and silver prices could see massive gains in 2012.

Source: New American.

Stocks Are Cheaper Than They’ve Been in Two Decades … U.S. stocks are trading at their cheapest levels since at least 1990, according to such commonly used valuations as price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios as well as dividend yield, Bespoke Investment Group says. This realization will lift the S&P 500 Index by 11 percent to 1,400 this year or maybe more, according to the research firm’s 2012 outlook report. “The S&P 500 is currently trading below its historical average P/E and P/B ratios, and these ratios are also at their lowest levels in the careers of a large percentage of money managers,” wrote strategists Paul Hickey and Justin Waters. – Fast Money/CNBC

Dominant Social Theme: Now is a golden buying opportunity!

Free-Market Analysis: OK, stocks are cheaper than they’ve been in 20 years. But cheaper than what?

This is actually a kind of power elite dominant social theme, in our view. We used to believe in the myth of the ever-abundant stock market but not anymore. Nonetheless, equity drummers keep pounding away. Stocks are just like any other widget. Sometimes they’re expensive according to historical indicators and sometimes they’re cheap. When they’re cheap you buy. When they’re expensive you … hold.

In the wonderful world of brokerage, the wisest customers never sell. In about five years from now – if the current system survives, and we doubt it will – there’ll be a virtual flood of articles about the few brave souls who managed to hold onto their equity positions for the past 15 years without flinching.

Now, we’ll be told, they’ll reap the rewards. Their stocks are up! Their patience has been rewarded. What we won’t read is the information about the lost opportunities, the funds tied up in failing stocks for a decade-and-a-half, the lack of capital to participate in gold and silver as both metals rose tremendously in value.

The rhetoric never changes. We remember the euphorias of the late 1990s and mid-2000s. Stocks, we were told, were like heirlooms. If you owned Kodak (oops) you never sold it. Or GM (oops), etc. You were supposed to pass these certificates down from generation to generation, like silverware. Here’s some more from the article:

The S&P 500 is already on track to reach or exceed this forecast, up more than four percent in 2012. Better-than-expected economic data and an emerging bailout solution in Europe are behind the gains.

To start 2012, the benchmark had an earnings multiple of 13, the lowest since 1990 and below the 80-year average of 15, according to Bespoke. It would take a move back to 1,484 to get the benchmark back to this long-term mean P/E.

The price-to-book ratio is 2.05, below the average since the late 1970s of 2.43. To get back to that average P/B, the benchmark would need to increase to 1,491.

So trading multiples are low and so is price-to-book. Sounds exciting but even the most trustworthy and historical numbers can lie. In this case, we’d point out, the analysts are looking at statistics instead of the larger business cycle.

It’s the Austrians who helped invented business cycle analysis, FA Hayek and Ludwig von Mises, and everyone who’s anyone on Wall Street is well aware of it. Central banks print money and generate stock-market bubbles. Then the markets and the bubbles collapse and the cycle starts all over.

But really, that’s not the whole truth because there are cycles within cycles. From at least 1980 to 2008, for almost 30 years, the US Federal Reserve in particular inflated the economy at the first sign of a slowdown.

Alan Greenspan did much of this by raising and lowering short-term interest rates gradually. But the result was a steady inflation of the US (and the world’s) economy. Of course, that can’t go on forever. What such endless amounts of monetary inflation do to an economy is entirely poisonous. They destroy it.

Sooner or later, larger economic forces reject the extra money sloshing around in the economy. Too much has been built, too much created, too much excess capital has been misplaced and mis-allocated. The economy collapses and central bankers rush to inject yet MORE money.

It’s the reason the banking sector (central banks’ distribution arm) is probably the largest or at least most important industry in the world right now. No matter what happens, banks aren’t allowed to fail.

The same cannot be said for the stock market. No matter how the powers-that-be try to prop up the stock market, the larger equity marts reflect the larger economy. When that slumps, so do stocks in aggregate. And it’s a fact that large economic slumps are an inevitable result of central banking monetary “crack.”

Today, and really for the past decade, the world has been in the grip of a fiat-paper bear market. It was most seriously affected during 2008 when the dollar reserve system basically collapsed. The chances are in our view that the fiat-money bear market may last several more years – even as many as four or five more.

Of course, we’re on record as wondering if this market cycle will go that far. We have a feeling that as gold approaches its higher-highs, the powers-that-be will have had enough. The dollar reserve system (which is basically no more, in our view) will be replaced by something else. Some sort of gold standard, we figure.

Of course, we likely won’t be in a favor of it. A potential new monetary standard, whatever it’s supposed to be, will no doubt be suggested and perhaps implemented by the same group that has saddled the world with 100 or more central banks.

This Anglosphere power elite will NEVER let the market have its way. They are determined to impose their will on human events at the expense of whatever human suffering is necessary. We can see them lining up the options already – a state-mandated metals money or perhaps the IMF‘s SDRs, supported by a larger basket of currencies.

Of course, whatever happens over the next few years will be reflected in the stock market. If the world does end up with a new monetary system, we can’t imagine that will be bullish in the short-term for equities. The market is no fan of uncertainty.

And for this reason, we return to our initial question – stocks are cheap, historically, but cheaper than what? Different “investments” are valued differently at different times during the artificial central-banking business cycle that we must function under.

In this case, we would argue, stocks are more likely reflecting potential chaos to come than a buying opportunity. Sure, there may be rallies during this fiat bear market but they should be considered within the context of the larger trends.

What bothers us most about these kinds of analyses is that if you mention the reality of the business cycle to many people on Wall Street, they’ll grant its existence and influence. But then they’ll go right back to banging the drum for equities as if the market can be evaluated solely on its own. (True, if pressed, they’ll suggest a government or corporate bond during a downturn.)

Likewise, regulations have been created without taking business cycle economics into account. Most SECregulations tend to narrow the strategic richness of the opportunities that people have to invest just when they are needed most. What regulations do, therefore, is to create an even more artificial and brittle marketplace where everyone is investing the same way – or trying to leave through the same door.

The regulators and the brokers are really two sides of the same coin. Stubbornly, neither will recognize the REAL business cycle or the culpability of the larger central banking system in its too-often ruinous behavior. With all the emphasis on risk, disclosure and asset diversification, this refusal to recognize the obvious is a little bit like ignoring the elephant in the room.

Of course, more and more investors are “getting it” these days, thanks to all the information available on the Internet. It is the Internet Reformation – as we call it – that is increasingly driving people’s investment behavior, and driving them away from mainstream equities as well.

As understanding about the real factors affecting the market continues to rise, we expect continued skepticism about mainstream stock markets and about the financial industry in general. Soon, we would not be surprised if the buying public begins to understand more about business cycle investing then the investment pros are willing to discuss. That will certainly make their jobs more difficult and lead to increasing confusion all around.

Conclusion: On the bright side, however, the talk about treating stocks like heirlooms may subside once and for all.

Source: The Daily Bell.

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,675.00, GBP 1,076.55, and EUR 1,294.94 per ounce.

Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,646.00, GBP 1,064.68, and EUR 1,274.29 per ounce.

Cross Currency Table – Bloomberg

Gold has risen in all currencies today and bullion up nearly 1 % to $1,675/oz. Gold rose 1.7% last week has risen more than 6% so far this year.

Gold jumped to its highest in more than a month as result of the uncertainty over of the Greek debt outcome and the growing geopolitical tensions with Iran and the US and Nato countries.

The Iranian geopolitical tension is supporting gold as Britain, America and France have delivered a clear message to Iran, sending six warships led by a 100,000 ton aircraft carrier through the highly sensitive Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters report that the EU has agreed to freeze the assets of the Iranian central bank and ban all trade in gold and other precious metals with the Iranian Central Bank and other public bodies in Iran.

According to IMF data, at the last official count (in 1996), Iran had reserves of just over 168 tonnes of gold. The FT reported in March 2011 that Iran has bought large amounts of bullion on the international market to diversify away from the dollar, citing a senior Bank of England official.

Currency wars continue and are deepening.

Many Asian markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday which has led to lower volumes.

Of note was there was an unusual burst of gold futures buying on the TOCOM in Japan, which has helped the cash market to breach resistance at $1,666 an ounce.

Investors are also waiting for euro zone finance ministers to decide the terms of a Greek debt restructuring later today.  This would be the second bailout package for Greece.

The risk of contagion in Eurozone debt and wider markets is leading to continued safe haven demand for gold.

Reuters Global Gold Forum

Silver surged 8% last week and is up nearly 20% so far in 2012 – thereby outperforming the other precious metals and nearly all assets.

Silver cut through resistance at $31 like knife through butter on Friday. Next resistance is $33 then and $35 and then the big $50.

Increasing speculation that the Fed will soon embark on another round of quantitative easing or QE3 is also supporting the precious metals and confirmation of QE3 could see gold reach $1,700/oz in short order.

Source: Prison Planet.

*Taken from Prison Planet. Written by Paul Joseph Watson.

Central banks are presumably so frightened that a growing number of citizens are abandoning rapidly devaluing paper currencies and preserving their wealth through precious metals that governments are now cracking down on the anonymous purchase of gold and silver.

Following the Austrian government’s announcement that it was restricting the sales of precious metals to $20,000 a time, an amount which would purchase just 11 ounces, the French authorities have followed suit with an equally draconian new measure to deter people from buying gold and silver.

A recently amended French law states(translation), “Any transaction on the retail purchase of ferrous and non ferrous (metals) is made by crossed check, bank or postal transfer or by credit card, not the total amount of the transaction may not exceed a ceiling set by decree. Failure to comply with this requirement is punishable by a ticket for the fifth class,” going on to confirm that any amount over €450 euros or $600 US dollars “must be paid by bank transfer”.

CONTINUED..

*Taken from the Daily Caller.

Several 2012 Republican presidential candidates are slated to participate in an Iowa bus tour that seeks to make returning the country’s monetary system to the gold standard a key election issue.

The Iowa Tea Party and the group American Principles in Action announced that they are launching their 18-day bus tour starting June 13.

Republicans Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum are scheduled to speak during at least one stop on the tour, according to Andy Blom, executive director of American Principles in Action. All are either running or contemplating a run for president in 2012.

CONTINUED..

*Taken from Market Watch.

Gold and silver have lost some luster with investors; the price of oil and other natural resources is lower, and speculation in many agriculture sectors has dried up. So why are three veteran money managers who can put money anywhere still holding on to commodities?

Because they believe that emerging markets will live up to their promise. They’re convinced that the growth of the world’s nascent economies will create a bold new consumer class, whose desire for more and better will feed demand for raw materials, industrial and precious metals, and — perhaps most critically — food and water.

“The world is growing and using more commodities,” said Marshall Berol, co-manager with Malcolm Gissen of Encompass Fund ENCPX -2.24%  , which has been heavily invested in various resource stocks for several years.

CONTINUED..

My Two Cents: Government hates competition. End Two Cents.

*Taken from Yahoo Finance.

Federal prosecutors on Monday tried to take a hoard of silver “Liberty Dollars” worth about $7 million that authorities say was invented by an Indiana man to compete with U.S. currency.

Bernard von NotHaus, 67, was convicted last month in federal court in Statesville on conspiracy and counterfeiting charges for making and selling the currency, which he promoted as inflation-proof competition for the U.S. dollar.

His Charlotte-based lawyer, Aaron Michel, is appealing that verdict. He wrote in a motion filed Thursday that von NotHaus did nothing wrong because he didn’t try to pass the Liberty Dollars off as U.S. dollars.

“The prosecutors successfully painted Mr. von NotHaus in a false light and now the U.S. Attorney responsible for the prosecution is painting the case in a false light, saying that it establishes that private voluntary barter currency is illegal,” Michel wrote.

The trial was scheduled to resume Monday in Statesville. The case involves more than five tons of Liberty Dollars and precious metals seized from a warehouse, which the government wants to take by forfeiture, according to federal prosecutors and Michel.

Von NotHaus began issuing Liberty Dollars in 1998, as head of the Evansville, Ind.-based National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve and Internal Revenue Code. In 2007, the group’s headquarters were raided along with the Sunshine Mint in Coeur D’Alene, Idaho, where the coins were made. The case is being tried in Statesville because one of the organization’s top officers is based in Asheville, and because an undercover investigator made contact with the group in North Carolina.

Federal prosecutors successfully argued that von NotHaus was, in fact, trying to pass off the silver coins as U.S. currency. Coming in denominations of 5, 10, 20, and 50, the Liberty Dollars also featured a dollar sign, the word “dollar” and the motto “Trust in God,” similar to the “In God We Trust” that appears on U.S. coins.

“Attempts to undermine the legitimate currency of this country are simply a unique form of domestic terrorism,” U.S. Attorney Anne Tompkins said in a statement after von NotHaus was convicted.

Von NotHaus has argued it’s not illegal to create currency to privately trade goods and services. He also has said his organization took pains to say the Liberty Dollars shouldn’t be called “coins” and shouldn’t be presented as government-minted cash. Among other benefits, Michel’s motion argues, the Liberty Dollars were a means to help keep currency in local communities by creating networks of merchants and consumers who used the money.

Numerous cities and regions around the country have experimented with local currency, but laws restrict them from resembling U.S. bills or from being passed off as money printed by the federal government.

The concerns raised by von NotHaus and his group are finding resonance among some state lawmakers, too. About a dozen states have legislation that would allow them to produce their own currency backed by gold or silver in the event of hyperinflation striking the U.S. dollar. North and South Carolina are among those states.

That’s partly why von NotHaus’ group has been followed for years by the Southern Poverty Law Center, a group that tracks political extremism. Long before the government began its investigation into von NotHaus, the group was raising concerns about the popularity of Liberty Dollars among fringe groups on the far right.

“He’s playing on a core idea of the radical right, that evil bankers in the Federal Reserve are ripping you off by controlling the money supply,” said Mark Potok, spokesman for the group. “He very much exists in the world of the anti-government patriot movement, whatever he may say. That’s who his customers are.”

Von NotHaus is currently free on bond. If the conviction against him is upheld, he faces up to 25 years in prison and a fine of $750,000. A sentencing date has not been set yet.

*Taken from the Wall Street Journal.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in April will start holding quarterly, televised news conferences, in the central bank’s latest effort to better explain its actions.

Fed policies have drawn increasing fire in recent years from lawmakers, foreign policy makers and others. Issues include the central bank’s interest-rate policies during the housing bubble, its reaction to the financial crisis and its current easy-money policies. Mr. Bernanke has responded by stepping up his public opportunities to counter the criticism.

The chairman will hold a news conference four times a year, beginning in April, after each policy-making meeting at which the central bank updates its economic forecasts, the Fed said in a statement Thursday.

“The introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy communication,” the Fed said.

Mr. Bernanke has held news conferences only twice before. Last month, he took questions from the media at the National Press Club in Washington, rejecting complaints from China and other emerging economies that the Fed’s policies were driving up food and energy prices around the world. Two years earlier, he took questions from the press to defend the government’s controversial bank rescues during the financial crisis.

A television interview Mr. Bernanke gave in 2009 was the first by a Fed chairman in more than two decades. He has participated in just one other, last December.

The Fed chairman’s traditional reticence contrasts with the policies of several other major central banks. Mr. Bernanke’s counterparts at the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan hold news briefings after each policy meeting, and the governor of the Bank of England takes press questions after releasing quarterly inflation reports.

Still, for the Fed, Mr. Bernanke’s latest step is a big one. It marks the most significant change in Fed communication since 2007, when the bank doubled the frequency with which it publishes economic forecasts to four times a year.

And holding news briefings carries some risks—that the chairman will stumble, for example, or that the public or financial markets will interpret him wrongly. New York Fed President William Dudley was recently derided by an audience in Queens for saying he believed underlying inflation was low, referring to measures of inflation that exclude food and energy prices, which have surged recently.

The Fed, established in 1913, has opened up very gradually over the decades. It wasn’t until 1975 that it started reporting to Congress twice a year on the economy and monetary policy. In 1994, the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee began releasing statements disclosing its interest rate policy actions, but it wasn’t until 2000 that it did so after every committee meeting.

Fed officials hope that by holding news conferences, the chairman can help the central bank deliver a stronger and more unified message, which in turn could increase the effectiveness of the Fed’s policies.

Vincent Reinhart, formerly a senior Fed official who worked on communications strategy, said the benefits of a news conference are greatest when the issues are complex and the central bank isn’t speaking with one voice—which is what happened late last year when the Fed embarked on a program of buying bonds to boost the economy.

When he became chairman in February 2006, Mr. Bernanke’s plan was for the Fed to be less personality-driven than under predecessors Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker. The financial crisis and the uneven recovery from the recession have put Mr. Bernanke under a brighter public spotlight than he anticipated.